Datanálisis: "Election results preclude another referendum"

The most significant outcome of the election for state governors and mayors has nothing to do with the number of incumbencies won by opposition candidates.

In the opinion of Luis Vicente León, the director of pollster Datanálisis, the most conclusive finding from November 23rd election is that "it precludes any possibility of calling right away a referendum or constitutional reform," linked with the reelection of President Hugo Chávez.

León noted that polls in Venezuela "are not won in numerical terms but symbolical terms, and these symbols were really impressive for the opposition last Sunday." He downplayed the triumph of the president's candidates in 17 states. "There, the only surprise was that he got less," said León. "Nobody doubted that Chávez would control at least two thirds of elected incumbencies. Winning percentages is meaningless; the point at issue is what he lost."

The Datanálisis director highlighted that President Chávez was defeated in "the country's principal electoral corridor, comprising eight states, including the Metropolitan District; where more than 60 percent of Venezuelans live; where the country's political and economic power is located; where the main industrial areas are deployed, in addition to the financial sector, the oil business and the country's major boundary (the border with Colombia -reference is made to southwest Táchira state)."

The victory of opposition candidate Carlos Ocariz in Sucre municipality, central Miranda state, is another symbol noted by León.
"The largest low-income neighborhood in Venezuela and, according to urban stories, the most densely populated in Latin America, is located there. This triumph is important in many ways. First of all, the myth that nobody can defeat Chávez among the masses was disproved, as well as the myth that middle-class young leaders are not popular," said León. In addition, he recalled that the dissent took control of the mayoralties located in Venezuelan major states. All of this, in León's view, prevents the president from "selling his numerical triumph without acknowledging a significant reversal of his political power."

"Upon which grounds he will say that the people asked him to remain as his candidates in Petare, Miranda and Caracas were defeated?" he wondered.

Primero Justicia and Ledezma
According to Oscar Schemel, the head of pollster Hinterlaces, the greatest winners in the polling day last Sunday are Antonio Ledezma and opposition Primero Justicia party (PJ). In the case of the new metropolitan mayor, Schemel noted, Ledezma "managed to move farther away from polarization, skillfully put himself in the middle and made proposals."

The Hinterlaces director stressed the victory of PJ candidates in Miranda state and Sucre municipality. However, he warned, the main challenge of this political party is "to be in tune with the masses, for the people still feel them distant and distinct. This (the alignment) will be very positive for their future management."
Schemel thinks that remaining opposition leaders face a similar challenge and recommended them excelling the social offer made by President Chávez. In this way, they will be able to reach all social classes.